Mathematical Football Prediction: A Bettor’s Honest Guide

I’ve been betting on football for over a decade, and the single biggest shift in how I pick matches happened the day I stopped trusting my gut and started running the numbers. Mathematical football prediction isn’t magic. It’s just discipline plus data: expected goals, recent form, schedule congestion, lineup news. When you stack those properly, you spot value the casual bettor misses.

This guide is built around what actually works for me on a Saturday afternoon across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. No fluff, no 100%-guaranteed nonsense.

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Barracas Central – Independ. Rivadavia 0–1Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina · 22/09 00:00 · ⛅ 12°1X✗ 35%2+1.5✗ 57%GG+2.5
Nueva Chicago – Patronato 1–1Primera Nacional · Argentina · 22/09 00:00 · ⛅ 12°1✗ 49%X2+1.5GG+2.5
Real Cundinamarca – Quindio 3–1Primera B · Colombia · 22/09 00:00 · ☁ 16°1X2✗ 38%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Guabirá – San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–1Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia · 22/09 00:001X2✗ 39%+1.5✓ 78%GG✓ 58%+2.5✓ 54%
Encarnación – Deportivo Capiata 3–1Division Intermedia · Paraguay · 22/09 00:001X2✗ 38%+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Humble Lions – Waterhouse 0–5Premier League · Jamaica · 22/09 00:05 · ☀ 26°1X2✓ 50%+1.5✓ 86%GG✗ 67%+2.5✓ 68%
Criciuma – Operario-PR 0–2Serie B · Brazil · 22/09 00:301✗ 40%X2+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Central Espanol – Atletico Torque 1–4Primera División · Uruguay · 22/09 00:301X2✓ 40%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
León W – Juárez W 0–2Liga MX Femenil · Mexico · 22/09 01:001✗ 47%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG+2.5
Juventus – União São João 1–1Copa Paulista · Brazil · 22/09 01:30 · ⛅ 22°1✗ 61%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG✓ 55%+2.5✗ 60%
Toluca W – Tigres UANL W 2–7Liga MX Femenil · Mexico · 22/09 02:00 · ☁ 15°1✗ 58%X2+1.5✓ 87%GG✓ 65%+2.5✓ 69%
Lanus – Estudiantes L.P. 2–1Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina · 22/09 02:15 · ☀ 11°1X✗ 38%2+1.5GG+2.5
Cuiaba – Nautico Recife 3–0Serie B · Brazil · 22/09 02:30 · ☀ 28°1✓ 40%X2+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Real Cartagena – Envigado 0–0Primera B · Colombia · 22/09 02:30 · ☁ 28°1✗ 41%X2+1.5✗ 83%GG✗ 63%+2.5✗ 62%
Independiente Petrolero – Real Tomayapo 5–1Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia · 22/09 02:30 · ☀ 15°1✓ 88%X2+1.5✓ 99%GG✓ 77%+2.5✓ 96%
Corinthians W – Bahia W 1–0Brasileiro Women · Brazil · 22/09 02:30 · ☁ 21°1✓ 54%X2+1.5✗ 89%GG✗ 69%+2.5✗ 72%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC – Cariari Pococi 1–0Liga de Ascenso · Costa-Rica · 22/09 03:001✓ 38%X2+1.5✗ 70%GG+2.5
Arnett Gardens – Dunbeholden 3–0Premier League · Jamaica · 22/09 03:001✓ 39%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 75%+2.5✓ 76%
UMECIT – Union Cocle 1–0Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Panama · 22/09 03:001✓ 50%X2+1.5✗ 65%GG+2.5
Santos Laguna W – Cruz Azul W 2–0Liga MX Femenil · Mexico · 22/09 03:061✓ 53%X2+1.5✓ 88%GG✗ 69%+2.5✗ 71%
Reboceros La Piedad – Irapuato 2–3Primera Premier · Mexico · 22/09 04:05 · ☁ 20°1✗ 42%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 68%+2.5✓ 68%
Vietnam U23 – Uzbekistan U23 0–2Asian Games · World · 22/09 07:00 · ⛅ 31°1X2✓ 54%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Philippines U23 – Kuwait U23 2–1Asian Games · World · 22/09 07:00 · ⛅ 31°1X2✗ 54%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
RTC – Tsirang 6–1Premier League · Bhutan · 22/09 11:001✓ 40%X2+1.5✓ 77%GG✓ 57%+2.5✓ 53%
Korea Republic U23 – Saudi Arabia U23 2–0Asian Games · World · 22/09 12:00 · ⛅ 24°1✓ 63%X2+1.5✓ 93%GG✗ 73%+2.5✗ 80%
FarDu – BuxDu 3–1Pro League A · Uzbekistan · 22/09 13:001✓ 80%X2+1.5✓ 85%GG+2.5✓ 65%
Santa Clara U23 – Portimonense U23 0–0Liga Revelação U23 · Portugal · 22/09 13:001✗ 37%X2+1.5✗ 54%GG+2.5
Ararat II – Pyunik II 2–1First League · Armenia · 22/09 13:301X2✗ 59%+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Bentonit Ijevan – Mika 2–1First League · Armenia · 22/09 13:301✓ 46%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 84%+2.5✓ 88%
Sardarapat 2 – Ararat-Armenia II 0–1First League · Armenia · 22/09 13:301X2✓ 58%+1.5✗ 76%GG✗ 50%+2.5✗ 52%
Charlton Athletic U21 – Sheffield United U21 3–1Professional Development League · England · 22/09 14:001X2✗ 41%+1.5✓ 76%GG✓ 55%+2.5✓ 52%
Wigan Athletic U21 – Coventry City U21 2–2Professional Development League · England · 22/09 14:001✗ 53%X2+1.5✓ 99%GG✓ 91%+2.5✓ 95%
Sevastopol – Rubin Yalta 3–1Second League – Group 1 · Russia · 22/09 15:00 · ☁ 14°1✓ 47%X2+1.5✓ 67%GG+2.5
Mozambique U20 – Mauritius U20 5–0COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 22/09 15:001✓ 59%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✗ 64%+2.5✓ 68%
Namibia U20 – Seychelles U20 3–0COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 22/09 15:001✓ 46%X2+1.5✓ 92%GG✗ 76%+2.5✓ 78%
Qiziriq – Gazalkent 1–4Pro League A · Uzbekistan · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 73%+1.5✓ 82%GG+2.5✓ 61%
CSM Adjud – USV Iaşi 1–2Liga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 37%+1.5✓ 63%GG+2.5
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung – Baicoi 2–2Liga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 39%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 75%+2.5✓ 76%
Carpati Covasna – ACS Mediaş 2022 1–4Liga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 49%+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 74%+2.5✓ 76%
Tricolorul Breaza – Corona Braşov 0–0Liga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✗ 82%+1.5✗ 89%GG✗ 50%+2.5✗ 72%
Berca – Progresul Draganesti 3–0Liga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✗ 62%+2.5✓ 63%
Plopeni – Blejoi 0–3Liga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 39%+1.5✓ 74%GG✗ 54%+2.5
Pucioasa – Flacăra Moreni 0–1Liga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 59%+1.5✗ 80%GG✗ 55%+2.5✗ 58%
Păuleşti – Tunari 0–2Liga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 71%+1.5✓ 85%GG✗ 54%+2.5✗ 66%
Axi Adunații-Copăceni – Oxigen Bucuresti 0–1Liga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 64%X2+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 57%+2.5✗ 63%
Dinamo Bucureşti II – Cetatea 1–3Liga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 59%+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 69%+2.5✓ 73%
FCSB II – Alexandria 1–3Liga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 57%+1.5✓ 79%GG✓ 54%+2.5✓ 55%
Voluntari II – LPS HD Clinceni 2–3Liga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 54%+1.5✓ 76%GG✓ 52%+2.5✓ 52%
Academica Balș – Jiul Petroşani 0–2Liga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 85%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✗ 67%+2.5✗ 89%
Filiaşi – CS U Craiova II 2–2Liga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 38%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 68%+2.5✓ 68%
Minerul Lupeni – CSM Targu Jiu 1–0Liga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✓ 50%X2+1.5✗ 79%GG✗ 56%+2.5✗ 55%
Păușești – Oltul Curtişoara 0–1Liga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 59%X2+1.5✗ 80%GG✗ 55%+2.5✗ 58%
Cetate Deva – Unirea Sântana 0–3Liga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 54%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✗ 62%+2.5✓ 63%
Poli Timisoara 2 – CIL Blaj 1–2Liga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✓ 64%+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 65%+2.5✓ 72%
Progresul Pecica – Universitatea Alba Iulia 6–0Liga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✓ 71%X2+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 75%+2.5✓ 85%
Unirea Alba Iulia – Timişul Şag 3–0Liga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 22/09 16:001X2✗ 57%+1.5GG+2.5
Sânmartin – Crişul Sântandrei 2–2Liga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 81%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 88%
Sănătatea Cluj – Minaur Baia Mare 0–2Liga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 22/09 16:001✗ 63%X2+1.5✓ 69%GG+2.5
Dumbrăviţa – CSM Reşiţa 0–2Liga II · Romania · 22/09 16:30 · ☁ 11°1X2✓ 45%+1.5✓ 73%GG✗ 52%+2.5
Mes Kerman – Saipa 0–1Azadegan League · Iran · 22/09 16:301X2✓ 41%+1.5✗ 76%GG✗ 55%+2.5✗ 52%
DC Power W – Fort Lauderdale United W 2–1USL Super League · USA · 22/09 17:001✓ 56%X2+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Tanzania U20 – Burundi U20 2–0CECAFA U20 Championship · World · 22/09 17:001X2✗ 47%+1.5✓ 96%GG✗ 83%+2.5✗ 87%
Uganda U20 – Sudan U20 2–3CECAFA U20 Championship · World · 22/09 17:001✗ 44%X2+1.5✓ 93%GG✓ 77%+2.5✓ 80%
Mes Soongoun – Mes Rafsanjan 0–0Azadegan League · Iran · 22/09 17:151X2✗ 39%+1.5✗ 80%GG✗ 60%+2.5✗ 58%
Academico Viseu U23 – Estoril U23 1–1Liga Revelação U23 · Portugal · 22/09 18:001✗ 45%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG✓ 62%+2.5✗ 61%
Naft Gachsaran – Ario Eslamshahr 0–1Azadegan League · Iran · 22/09 18:001✗ 59%X2+1.5✗ 85%GG✗ 62%+2.5✗ 66%
Naft Masjed Soleyman – Naft Bandar Abbas 0–1Azadegan League · Iran · 22/09 18:001✗ 56%X2+1.5✗ 82%GG✗ 59%+2.5✗ 61%
Inter Milano W – Häcken W 1–0UEFA Champions League Women · World · 22/09 18:45 · ☀ 23°1✓ 63%X2+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 58%+2.5✗ 64%
AGF W – Nordsjælland W 0–2Kvindeliga · Denmark · 22/09 19:001X2✓ 68%+1.5✓ 94%GG✗ 74%+2.5✗ 83%
ASA Targu Mures – CS Dinamo București 4–3Liga II · Romania · 22/09 19:001✓ 68%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 73%
Bristol City U21 – Hull City U21 4–1Professional Development League · England · 22/09 19:001✓ 49%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 84%+2.5✓ 88%
Husqvarna W – Växjö W 1–3Svenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 22/09 19:001✗ 91%X2+1.5✓ 99%GG✓ 69%+2.5✓ 95%
KIF Örebro W – AIK W 0–2Svenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 22/09 19:001✗ 53%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✗ 70%+2.5✗ 73%
Traiskirchen – Krems / Rehberg 2–0Regionalliga – Ost · Austria · 22/09 19:301X2✗ 43%+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 75%+2.5✗ 76%
Austria Klagenfurt – Donau Klagenfurt 2–1Regionalliga – South · Austria · 22/09 19:45 · ☀ 13°1✓ 65%X2+1.5✓ 81%GG✓ 52%+2.5✓ 59%
America MG U17 – Gremio U17 4–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✓ 71%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG+2.5✓ 61%
Atletico GO U17 – Botafogo U17 2–6Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001X2✓ 47%+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 63%+2.5✓ 63%
RB Bragantino U17 – Flamengo RJ U17 2–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✓ 56%X2+1.5✓ 85%GG✗ 63%+2.5✗ 65%
Cruzeiro U17 – Bahia U17 4–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✓ 56%X2+1.5✓ 81%GG✗ 57%+2.5✓ 59%
Fluminense U17 – Athletico PR U17 0–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✗ 61%X2+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 59%+2.5✗ 64%
Internacional U17 – Atlético Mineiro U17 0–1Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✗ 37%X2+1.5✗ 78%GG✗ 58%+2.5✗ 54%
Juventude U17 – Corinthians U17 1–6Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001X2✓ 47%+1.5✓ 81%GG✓ 60%+2.5✓ 59%
Vasco U17 – Santos U17 5–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✓ 57%X2+1.5✓ 79%GG✗ 54%+2.5✓ 55%
Vitoria U17 – Fortaleza U17 1–3Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001✗ 45%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 63%
Wigan – Blackpool 3–2EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001✓ 53%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 73%
Crewe – Aston Villa U21 4–1EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001✓ 49%X2+1.5✓ 90%GG✓ 72%+2.5✓ 74%
York – Rotherham 1–1EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:00 · ☁ 21°1X2✗ 55%+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 62%+2.5✗ 64%
Chesterfield – Port Vale 1–1EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001✗ 61%X2+1.5✓ 97%GG✓ 84%+2.5✗ 90%
Cheltenham – Exeter City 2–2EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 41%+1.5✓ 82%GG✓ 62%+2.5✓ 60%
Plymouth – Crystal Palace U21 5–1EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 46%+1.5✓ 78%GG✓ 56%+2.5✓ 54%
Swindon Town – Newport County 0–2EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:001X2✓ 43%+1.5✓ 77%GG✗ 56%+2.5✗ 53%
San Lorenzo Res. – Huracán Res. 0–2Reserve League · Argentina · 22/09 20:001✗ 41%X2+1.5✓ 70%GG+2.5
Vélez Sársfield Res. – Ferro 2 4–0Reserve League · Argentina · 22/09 20:001✓ 66%X2+1.5✓ 70%GG+2.5
Clube 1992 – Panambi 1–2Gaúcho – 3 · Brazil · 22/09 20:001X2✓ 69%+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 58%+2.5✓ 68%
ACV – Hoogeveen 2–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:00 · ☀ 16°1✓ 80%X2+1.5✓ 97%GG✓ 76%+2.5✓ 91%
Eemdijk – Roosendaal 2–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 47%+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 83%+2.5✓ 87%
EVV – Halsteren 3–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001✓ 59%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Excelsior '31 – AFC '34 4–3KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 72%+1.5✓ 88%GG✓ 59%+2.5✓ 71%
Groene Ster – AFC Amsterdam 1–6KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001✗ 42%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 63%
GVVV Veenendaal – DVS 33 Ermelo 4–0KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:00 · ☁ 17°1X2✗ 46%+1.5✓ 78%GG✗ 56%+2.5✓ 54%
Koninklijke HFC – Dovo 3–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:00 · ☁ 19°1✓ 56%X2+1.5✓ 92%GG✓ 74%+2.5✓ 78%
Kloetinge – Achilles Veen 8–0KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001✓ 41%X2+1.5✓ 98%GG✗ 90%+2.5✓ 94%
Noordwijk – Frisia 1–0KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 66%+1.5✗ 90%GG✗ 66%+2.5✗ 75%
Rijnvogels – Vvsb 0–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001✗ 68%X2+1.5✗ 96%GG✗ 78%+2.5✗ 87%
Sportlust '46 – Excelsior Maassluis 0–2KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001✗ 59%X2+1.5✓ 80%GG✗ 55%+2.5✗ 58%
Staphorst – SC Genemuiden 2–3KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 22/09 20:001X2✓ 48%+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 67%+2.5✓ 68%
Uribelarrea – Nautico Hacoaj 5–0Torneo Promocional Amateur · Argentina · 22/09 20:001X2✗ 35%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Bradford – Newcastle United U21 2–1EFL Trophy · England · 22/09 20:301X2✗ 58%+1.5✓ 85%GG✓ 62%+2.5✓ 65%
Alloa Athletic – Hibernian U21 4–1Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 18°1✓ 69%X2+1.5✓ 81%GG+2.5✓ 59%
Banks O' Dee – Aberdeen U21 2–1Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 72%+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 76%
Berwick Rangers – Stranraer 3–2Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 19°1✓ 48%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 67%+2.5✓ 68%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic – Airdrie United 1–6Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 16°1X2✓ 48%+1.5✓ 80%GG✓ 59%+2.5✓ 58%
Clachnacuddin – Ross County 1–5Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✗ 42%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 63%
Clyde – Rangers U21 1–2Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 16°1X2✓ 72%+1.5✓ 94%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 83%
Clydebank – St. Mirren U21 2–1Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✓ 41%X2+1.5✓ 88%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 71%
Dumbarton – Kilmarnock II 3–2Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 17°1X2✗ 46%+1.5✓ 92%GG✓ 76%+2.5✓ 78%
East Kilbride – Celtic II 3–3Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✗ 49%X2+1.5✓ 97%GG✓ 87%+2.5✓ 91%
Edinburgh City – Dundee United II 1–0Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ⛅ 18°1✓ 69%X2+1.5✗ 86%GG✗ 58%+2.5✗ 68%
Elgin City – Dundee II 3–0Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✓ 80%X2+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 66%+2.5✓ 84%
Forfar Athletic – Peterhead 0–2Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 90%+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 52%+2.5✗ 85%
Formartine United – Montrose 3–2Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 49%+1.5✓ 92%GG✓ 76%+2.5✓ 79%
Fraserburgh – Cove Rangers 0–5Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✗ 59%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Gala Fairydean Rovers – Spartans 0–0Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:45 · ☁ 16°1X2✗ 79%+1.5✗ 95%GG✗ 69%+2.5✗ 85%
Kelty Hearts – Hearts U21 3–5Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 48%+1.5✓ 99%GG✓ 92%+2.5✓ 95%
Queen of the South – Annan Athletic 1–1Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✗ 50%X2+1.5✓ 79%GG✓ 56%+2.5✗ 55%
Stirling Albion – Cumbernauld Colts 1–1Challenge Cup · Scotland · 22/09 20:451✗ 83%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 67%+2.5✗ 87%
Three Bridges – Leatherhead 3–3Non League Premier – Isthmian · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 59%+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 72%+2.5✓ 77%
Cleethorpes Town – Redcar Athletic 1–1Non League Premier – Northern · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 39%+1.5✓ 83%GG✓ 64%+2.5✗ 62%
Leek Town – Hyde United 2–1Non League Premier – Northern · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 73%+2.5✓ 77%
Anstey Nomads – Alvechurch 2–2Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 42%X2+1.5✓ 58%GG+2.5
Bury Town – Hitchin Town 1–0Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 67%X2+1.5✗ 81%GG✗ 51%+2.5✗ 59%
Leamington – Halesowen TownNon League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:45136%X2+1.555%GG+2.5
Leighton Town – Needham MarketNon League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451X241%+1.583%GG63%+2.562%
Leiston – Peterborough Sports 0–2Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 48%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG✗ 61%+2.5✗ 60%
Rushall Olympic – Kettering Town 3–2Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 36%X2+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Stourbridge – Real Bedford 1–4Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 60%+1.5✓ 73%GG+2.5
Stratford Town – Bromsgrove Sporting 2–3Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 60%+1.5✓ 71%GG+2.5
Worcester City – Banbury United 0–0Non League Premier – Southern Central · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 51%X2+1.5✗ 55%GG+2.5
Berkhamsted – Hanworth Villa 1–2Non League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 41%X2+1.5GG+2.5
Chichester City – Chertsey Town 2–2Non League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 53%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 73%+2.5✓ 76%
Chippenham Town – SholingNon League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:45139%X2+1.572%GG52%+2.5
Hanwell Town – UxbridgeNon League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451X243%+1.557%GG+2.5
Malvern Town – Gloucester City 5–2Non League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 48%+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 73%
Plymouth Parkway – Frome Town 2–0Non League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 60%X2+1.5✓ 85%GG✗ 61%+2.5✗ 65%
Poole Town – Wimborne TownNon League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451X245%+1.555%GG+2.5
Taunton Town – Bath City 1–3Non League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 56%X2+1.5✓ 90%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 74%
Yate Town – Evesham UnitedNon League Premier – Southern South · England · 22/09 20:451X242%+1.589%GG72%+2.573%
Chippenham Town – Yate Town 2–1FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 35%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG✓ 51%+2.5
Braintree – Needham Market 3–0FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 46%+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 81%+2.5✓ 84%
Crowborough Athletic – Hampton & Richmond 3–1FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 39%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 75%+2.5✓ 76%
Dagenham & Redbridge – Waltham Abbey 3–0FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 90%+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 52%+2.5✓ 85%
Exmouth – Thame United 1–3FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 44%X2+1.5✓ 93%GG✓ 77%+2.5✓ 80%
Farnborough – Uxbridge 0–2FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 54%+1.5✓ 89%GG✗ 69%+2.5✗ 72%
Farnham Town – Cirencester Town 1–2FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X2✓ 59%+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Gainsborough Trinity – Leamington 3–0FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 38%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✗ 68%+2.5✓ 68%
Maidstone Utd – Cray Wanderers 0–2FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✗ 36%X2+1.5✓ 80%GG✗ 60%+2.5✗ 58%
Truro City – Merthyr Town 2–0FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X✗ 34%2+1.5✓ 59%GG+2.5
Wimborne Town – Weston-super-Mare 3–2FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 41%X2+1.5✓ 59%GG+2.5
Wingate & Finchley – Hemel Hempstead Town 2–1FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 41%X2+1.5GG+2.5
Worksop Town – AFC Telford United 5–2FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451✓ 39%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✓ 75%+2.5✓ 76%
Dorking Wanderers – Southall 5–4FA Cup · England · 22/09 20:451X2✗ 43%+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 71%+2.5✓ 72%
Arsenal W – Køge W 1–0UEFA Champions League Women · World · 22/09 21:00 · ☁ 21°1X2✗ 35%+1.5✗ 66%GG+2.5
Juventus W – SL Benfica W 1–2UEFA Champions League Women · World · 22/09 21:00 · ☁ 18°1✗ 52%X2+1.5✓ 77%GG✓ 54%+2.5✓ 53%
Real Madrid W – Paris Saint Germain W 1–1UEFA Champions League Women · World · 22/09 21:00 · ⛅ 24°1✗ 47%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG+2.5
Salcedo – CibaoLiga Mayor · Dominican-Republic · 22/09 22:00145%X2+1.588%GG70%+2.571%
Universidad O&M – AtlánticoLiga Mayor · Dominican-Republic · 22/09 22:00176%X2+1.587%GG54%+2.570%
Depor FC – Tigres FC 0–3Primera B · Colombia · 22/09 23:00 · 🌦 23°1X2✓ 42%+1.5✓ 61%GG+2.5
Ind. Yumbo – Internacional Palmira 0–1Primera B · Colombia · 22/09 23:001X2✓ 37%+1.5✗ 63%GG+2.5
Real Santander – Orsomarso 0–0Primera B · Colombia · 22/09 23:00 · 🌦 22°1✗ 40%X2+1.5✗ 71%GG✗ 51%+2.5
D. Puerto Montt – Nublense 2–0Copa Chile · Chile · 22/09 23:00 · 🌦 8°1✓ 40%X2+1.5✓ 51%GG+2.5
2 de Mayo – SOL DE America 0–4Copa Paraguay · Paraguay · 22/09 23:30 · ☁ 17°1✗ 59%X2+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. – Atlético Tucumán Res. 0–1Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 00:001✗ 39%X2+1.5✗ 72%GG✗ 52%+2.5
Sao Paulo U17 – Palmeiras U17 2–1Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 23/09 01:001X2✗ 43%+1.5✓ 87%GG✓ 69%+2.5✓ 69%
Independiente Medellin – Jaguares 2–1Primera A · Colombia · 23/09 01:001✓ 57%X2+1.5✓ 79%GG✓ 54%+2.5✓ 55%
A. Italiano – Colo Colo 0–0Copa Chile · Chile · 23/09 01:301X2✗ 44%+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 65%+2.5✗ 64%
Cobreloa – Coquimbo Unido 1–2Copa Chile · Chile · 23/09 01:301X2✓ 36%+1.5✓ 55%GG+2.5
Santa Fe – Deportivo Cali 0–1Primera A · Colombia · 23/09 03:001✗ 47%X2+1.5✗ 71%GG+2.5
Vanuatu W – New Caledonia W 5–0Friendlies Women · World · 23/09 06:001✓ 69%X2+1.5✓ 90%GG✗ 64%+2.5✓ 74%
China PR U23 – UAE U23 0–0Asian Games · World · 23/09 07:301✗ 60%X2+1.5✗ 71%GG+2.5
Iran U23 – Korea DPR U23 1–4Asian Games · World · 23/09 07:301✗ 60%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG+2.5
Fiji W – Solomon Islands W 0–1Friendlies Women · World · 23/09 09:001✗ 52%X2+1.5✗ 77%GG✗ 54%+2.5✗ 53%
Gamba Osaka – Tokushima Vortis 5–0Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:001X2✗ 46%+1.5✓ 90%GG✗ 73%+2.5✓ 75%
Kashima – Ventforet Kofu 3–1Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:00 · ⛅ 23°1X2✗ 42%+1.5✓ 92%GG✓ 76%+2.5✓ 78%
Kashiwa Reysol – Imabari 4–0Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:001X2✗ 59%+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
Kyoto Sanga – Fujieda MYFC 1–0Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:001X2✗ 61%+1.5✗ 96%GG✗ 83%+2.5✗ 89%
Vissel Kobe – Sagan Tosu 1–0Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:00 · ⛅ 25°1X2✗ 54%+1.5✗ 93%GG✗ 76%+2.5✗ 80%
Machida Zelvia – Tochigi City 2–1Emperor Cup · Japan · 23/09 10:00 · 🌦 19°1✓ 45%X2+1.5✓ 88%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 71%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 – Karpaty Lviv U19 1–0U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 11:001X2✗ 48%+1.5✗ 80%GG✗ 59%+2.5✗ 58%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 – Metalist 1925 U19 0–1U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 12:001✗ 77%X2+1.5✗ 89%GG✗ 56%+2.5✗ 73%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 – Veres Rivne U19U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 12:00154%X2+1.572%GG+2.5
Lviv U19 – Oleksandria U19 2–1U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 12:001✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 76%GG✓ 52%+2.5✓ 52%
Metalist 1925 W – Torreense W 1–2UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 12:00 · 🌧 13°1✗ 55%X2+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 84%+2.5✓ 89%
Lesotho U20 – Angola U20 0–5COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 23/09 12:001X2✓ 59%+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 71%+2.5✓ 76%
South Africa U20 – Eswatini U20 2–0COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 23/09 12:001✓ 73%X2+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 72%+2.5✗ 84%
Japan U23 – Thailand U23 3–0Asian Games · World · 23/09 12:301X2✗ 70%+1.5✓ 95%GG✗ 74%+2.5✓ 84%
Kyrgyz Republic U23 – Hong Kong U23 4–0Asian Games · World · 23/09 12:301X2✗ 78%+1.5✓ 97%GG✗ 76%+2.5✓ 89%
Zhytomyr U19 – Kolos Kovalivka U19 1–2U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 13:001✗ 71%X2+1.5✓ 81%GG+2.5✓ 59%
SK Metalurh U19 – Obolon' Kyiv U19 1–2U19 League · Ukraine · 23/09 14:00 · ⛈ 17°1X2✓ 40%+1.5✓ 79%GG✓ 59%+2.5✓ 57%
Thimphu City – Transport United 3–0Premier League · Bhutan · 23/09 14:001✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✗ 62%+2.5✓ 63%
Tzeirey Tamra – Hapoel Beit Shean 1–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 14:301X2✗ 55%+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 62%+2.5✗ 64%
Japan U18 – Ukraine U18 2–1Friendlies · World · 23/09 15:001X2✗ 41%+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Malawi U20 – Comoros U20 2–1COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 23/09 15:001✓ 63%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 58%+2.5✓ 64%
Zambia U20 – Botswana U20 3–1COSAFA U20 Championship · World · 23/09 15:001✓ 55%X2+1.5✓ 83%GG✓ 60%+2.5✓ 62%
Italy U20 W – Spain U20 W 0–2World Cup – U20 – Women · World · 23/09 15:00 · ☁ 14°1X2✓ 41%+1.5✓ 70%GG+2.5
Peru U19 – Argentina U19 0–1South American Youth Games · World · 23/09 15:001✗ 54%X2+1.5✗ 76%GG✗ 52%+2.5✗ 52%
Levoča – Liptovský Mikuláš 0–2Cup · Slovakia · 23/09 15:301✗ 54%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✗ 69%+2.5✗ 72%
Drina Zvornik – Rudar Prijedor1st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:00174%X2+1.586%GG53%+2.567%
Leotar – Famos Vojkovići 3–01st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:001✓ 76%X2+1.5✓ 85%GG+2.5✓ 65%
FK Majevica Lopare – Laktaši1st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:001X243%+1.582%GG62%+2.560%
Velež Nevesinje – Zvijezda 091st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:001X246%+1.590%GG73%+2.575%
Slavija – Kozara Gradiška1st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:00150%X2+1.569%GG+2.5
FK Romanija Pale – Potkozarje1st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 16:00157%X2+1.569%GG+2.5
Hapoel Azor – Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 16:001✓ 36%X2+1.5✓ 80%GG✗ 60%+2.5✗ 58%
Bradul Putna – PaşcaniLiga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.576%GG52%+2.552%
CSM FC Vaslui – Târgu SecuiescLiga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 23/09 16:00164%X2+1.589%GG65%+2.572%
FC Bacău II – Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţLiga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 23/09 16:00177%X2+1.582%GG+2.561%
Odorheiu Secuiesc – Aerostar BacauLiga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 23/09 16:00144%X2+1.574%GG53%+2.5
Gheorgheni – Viitorul OnestiLiga III – Serie 1 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.593%GG76%+2.580%
Săcele – Valenii de MunteLiga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X242%+1.584%GG64%+2.563%
Kids Tâmpa Braşov – Olimpic ZărneştiLiga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X249%+1.591%GG74%+2.576%
Râmnicu Sărat – Voința CrevediaLiga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.584%GG62%+2.563%
Urban Titu – Viitorul CorbeancaLiga III – Serie 3 · Romania · 23/09 16:00145%X2+1.588%GG70%+2.571%
Agigea – Unirea BranişteaLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.593%GG76%+2.580%
Agricola Borcea – Recolta Gheorghe DojaLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.598%GG88%+2.593%
Dunarea Calarasi – Sporting LieştiLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X266%+1.590%GG66%+2.575%
Înainte Modelu – Portul ConstantaLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:00183%X2+1.594%GG61%+2.583%
FC Oţelul II – Gloria BăneasaLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:00145%X2+1.582%GG62%+2.561%
Progresul Fundulea – AxiopolisLiga III – Serie 4 · Romania · 23/09 16:00159%X2+1.586%GG64%+2.568%
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu – Progresul SpartacLiga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 23/09 16:00141%X2+1.576%GG55%+2.552%
Omega Sport – Progresul MogosoaiaLiga III – Serie 5 · Romania · 23/09 16:00135%X2+1.571%GG51%+2.5
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin – Vulturii FărcăşeştiLiga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 23/09 16:00180%X2+1.595%GG66%+2.584%
Petrolul Hartiesti – Unirea BascovLiga III – Serie 6 · Romania · 23/09 16:00147%X2+1.559%GG+2.5
Nera Bogodinţi – Metalurgistul CugirLiga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X243%+1.589%GG71%+2.572%
Viitorul Arad – Ghiroda şi Giarmata ViiLiga III – Serie 7 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X242%+1.567%GG+2.5
Academica Recea – Transilvania Sport AcademyLiga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 23/09 16:00146%X2+1.592%GG76%+2.578%
Bihorul Beiuş – Sighetu MarmaţieiLiga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 23/09 16:00154%X2+1.572%GG+2.5
SCM Zalău – Unirea TășnadLiga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 23/09 16:00184%X2+1.581%GG+2.559%
Unirea Dej – Viitorul ClujLiga III – Serie 8 · Romania · 23/09 16:001X240%+1.566%GG+2.5
Kladno – Baník Ostrava 1–2Cup · Czech-Republic · 23/09 16:001X2✓ 73%+1.5✓ 100%GG✓ 93%+2.5✓ 98%
Finland U17 – France U17 3–1Friendlies · World · 23/09 16:001X2✗ 40%+1.5✓ 82%GG✓ 63%+2.5✓ 61%
Videm – Hajdina3. SNL – East · Slovenia · 23/09 17:00148%X2+1.589%GG71%+2.573%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel – Ironi Nesher 1–1Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 17:001✗ 48%X2+1.5✓ 83%GG✓ 62%+2.5✗ 62%
Barau FC – Abia Warriors 2–0NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:001✓ 69%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✗ 58%+2.5✗ 68%
Bendel Insurance – Ikorodu City 2–1NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00 · 🌦 26°1✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 93%GG✓ 76%+2.5✓ 80%
Doma United – Plateau United 2–2NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00 · 🌦 27°1✗ 60%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG+2.5
Enyimba – Sporting Lagos 2–3NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:001X2✓ 49%+1.5✓ 57%GG+2.5
Inter Lagos – Kano Pillars 1–1NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:001X2✗ 54%+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 62%+2.5✗ 63%
Kwara United – Nasarawa United 2–1NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00 · 🌦 27°1✓ 69%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✓ 58%+2.5✓ 68%
Niger Tornadoes – Warri Wolves 0–0NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:001✗ 60%X2+1.5✗ 71%GG+2.5
Enugu Rangers – Ranchers Bees 1–0NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00 · 🌦 27°1✓ 64%X2+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 57%+2.5✗ 63%
Rivers United – Kun Khalifat FCNPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00168%X2+1.574%GG+2.5
Shooting Stars – Katsina United 2–0NPFL · Nigeria · 23/09 17:00 · 🌦 25°1✓ 65%X2+1.5✓ 76%GG+2.5✗ 52%
Inter Sibiu – Sepsi IILiga III – Serie 2 · Romania · 23/09 17:001X264%+1.584%GG57%+2.563%
Slovan Liberec W – Rosenborg W 3–1UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 17:001X2✗ 40%+1.5✓ 66%GG+2.5
Birmingham Legion – Brooklyn 4–0USL Championship · USA · 23/09 18:00 · ☀ 27°1✓ 54%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG✗ 60%+2.5✓ 61%
Bregalnica Štip – Skopje 1–0First League · Macedonia · 23/09 18:001✓ 77%X2+1.5✗ 69%GG+2.5
Azerbaijan – Tajikistan 1–0Friendlies · World · 23/09 18:001X2✗ 54%+1.5✗ 76%GG✗ 52%+2.5✗ 52%
Hapoel Marmorek – Shimshon Tel Aviv 1–2Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 18:001✗ 35%X2+1.5✓ 71%GG✓ 51%+2.5
Ironi Beit Shemesh – Nordia Jerusalem 1–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 18:001X2✗ 49%+1.5✗ 94%GG✗ 79%+2.5✗ 83%
Sandviken W – Umeå W 2–6Svenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 18:001✗ 44%X2+1.5✓ 99%GG✓ 95%+2.5✓ 98%
Värnamo W – Kristianstad W 0–8Svenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 18:001✗ 91%X2+1.5✓ 99%GG✗ 69%+2.5✓ 95%
Grorud – Moss 1–1NM Cupen · Norway · 23/09 18:001✗ 62%X2+1.5✓ 97%GG✓ 83%+2.5✗ 89%
Breidablik W – Czarni Sosnowiec W 2–6UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 18:001✗ 92%X2+1.5✓ 98%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 93%
Brøndby W – Sporting CP W 4–1UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 18:001✓ 72%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 61%+2.5✓ 73%
FH W – Eintracht Frankfurt W 0–1UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 18:001✗ 39%X2+1.5✗ 67%GG+2.5
Minsk W – Fenerbahce WUEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 18:001X239%+1.565%GG+2.5
Wiedenbrück – VfL Osnabrück 0–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 23/09 18:001X2✓ 49%+1.5✓ 84%GG✗ 63%+2.5✓ 63%
Gibraltar – Sao Tome and Principe 0–0Friendlies · World · 23/09 18:001✗ 77%X2+1.5✗ 87%GG✗ 52%+2.5✗ 69%
Korea DPR U20 W – Colombia U20 W 3–0World Cup – U20 – Women · World · 23/09 18:30 · ☀ 12°1X2✗ 38%+1.5✓ 79%GG✗ 59%+2.5✓ 55%
OH Leuven W – Roma W 0–0UEFA Champions League Women · World · 23/09 18:45 · ☀ 21°1✗ 59%X2+1.5✗ 77%GG✗ 50%+2.5✗ 53%
Servette Chênois W – Lyon W 0–8UEFA Champions League Women · World · 23/09 18:451✗ 70%X2+1.5✓ 86%GG✗ 56%+2.5✓ 67%
Sutjeska Foča – Omarska1st League – RS · Bosnia · 23/09 19:00139%X2+1.574%GG54%+2.5
Tira – Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–1Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:001✗ 93%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG+2.5✗ 73%
Beitar Nahariya – Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 3–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:001✓ 56%X2+1.5✓ 63%GG+2.5
Alingsås W – Elfsborg WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00167%X2+1.594%GG74%+2.583%
Älvsjö AIK W – Djurgården WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00153%X2+1.595%GG82%+2.586%
Enskede W – Brommapojkarna WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00182%X2+1.596%GG68%+2.587%
Eskilsminne W – Rosengård W 0–3Svenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:001✗ 69%X2+1.5✓ 90%GG✗ 65%+2.5✓ 75%
Hu Ge W – Uppsala WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00136%X2+1.570%GG+2.5
Jitex W – Vittsjö WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00169%X2+1.590%GG65%+2.575%
Linköping W – Norrköping WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00179%X2+1.593%GG62%+2.580%
Örebro SK W – Eskilstuna United WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00189%X2+1.597%GG64%+2.590%
Sunnanå W – Piteå WSvenska Cupen – Women · Sweden · 23/09 19:00163%X2+1.584%GG58%+2.564%
Feyenoord W – Vålerenga W 4–1UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 19:001✓ 42%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 64%+2.5✓ 63%
PSV/Eindhoven W – Fortuna Hjørring W 1–0UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 19:001X2✗ 52%+1.5✗ 73%GG+2.5
VfL Wolfsburg W – Sturm Graz W 6–1UEFA Europa Cup – Women · World · 23/09 19:001X2✗ 57%+1.5✓ 97%GG✓ 85%+2.5✓ 90%
France U21 – Austria U18 1–2Friendlies · World · 23/09 19:001✗ 41%X2+1.5✓ 62%GG+2.5
Dimona – Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1–5Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:101X2✓ 51%+1.5✓ 74%GG✓ 51%+2.5
Hapoel Herzliya – Tzeirey Tira 1–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:151✓ 77%X2+1.5✗ 82%GG+2.5✗ 61%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon – Hapoel Sderot 1–0Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:151X2✗ 60%+1.5✗ 71%GG+2.5
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm – Hapoel Umm al-FahmLiga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:201X247%+1.571%GG+2.5
Oberneuland – Hemelingen 0–6Oberliga – Bremen · Germany · 23/09 19:301X2✓ 84%+1.5✓ 91%GG✗ 51%+2.5✓ 76%
England U17 – Republic of Ireland U17 4–0Friendlies · World · 23/09 19:301✓ 36%X2+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Ironi Baka El Garbiya – Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 3–1Liga Alef · Israel · 23/09 19:451X2✗ 59%+1.5✓ 80%GG✓ 55%+2.5✓ 58%
Madureira – Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–2Copa Rio · Brazil · 23/09 19:451X✗ 44%2+1.5GG+2.5
São Paulo Crystal – SpartaxParaibano 2 · Brazil · 23/09 20:00136%X2+1.568%GG+2.5
Aldosivi Res. – Quilmes 2 0–1Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 20:001X✗ 37%2+1.5✗ 52%GG+2.5
Defensa y Justicia Res. – Tigre Res. 2–1Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 20:001✓ 61%X2+1.5✓ 82%GG✓ 55%+2.5✓ 60%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. – Estudiantes La Plata Res 2–0Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 20:001X2✗ 44%+1.5✓ 62%GG+2.5
Lanús Res. – Banfield Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 20:00154%X2+1.579%GG56%+2.557%
Sarmiento Res. – Atl. Rafaela 2 3–1Reserve League · Argentina · 23/09 20:001✓ 41%X2+1.5✓ 68%GG+2.5
Boreham Wood – Everton U21 1–1National League Cup · England · 23/09 20:00 · ☀ 15°1✗ 64%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 65%+2.5✗ 72%
Groesbeek – Kozakken Boys 1–5KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:001✗ 41%X2+1.5✓ 84%GG✓ 65%+2.5✓ 64%
Ijsselmeervogels – Gemert 0–3KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:00 · 🌦 16°1X2✓ 41%+1.5✓ 82%GG✗ 62%+2.5✓ 60%
Sparta Nijkerk – UDI '19 3–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:001X2✗ 65%+1.5✓ 96%GG✓ 79%+2.5✓ 87%
TOGB – ROHDA Raalte 4–6KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:001✗ 53%X2+1.5✓ 89%GG✓ 70%+2.5✓ 73%
Zwaluwen – Purmersteijn 0–1KNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:001✗ 74%X2+1.5✗ 100%GG✗ 92%+2.5✗ 98%
JOS Watergraafsmeer – TECKNVB Beker · Netherlands · 23/09 20:00141%X2+1.598%GG90%+2.594%
Gremio Prudente U20 – Juventus U20 0–0Paulista – U20 · Brazil · 23/09 20:001X2✗ 68%+1.5✗ 89%GG✗ 63%+2.5✗ 72%
Paraguay U19 – Chile U19South American Youth Games · World · 23/09 20:00138%X2+1.588%GG71%+2.571%
Largs Thistle – Johnstone BurghFootball League – Lowland League · Scotland · 23/09 20:15160%X2+1.587%GG64%+2.569%
Crixás EC – TrindadeGoiano – 2 · Brazil · 23/09 20:30146%X2+1.578%GG56%+2.554%
ESMAC – Pedreira 0–5Paraense A3 · Brazil · 23/09 20:301X✗ 34%2+1.5✓ 59%GG+2.5
Paraense SC – TeslaParaense A3 · Brazil · 23/09 20:301X43%2+1.5GG+2.5
Sport Belem – CA Vila RicaParaense A3 · Brazil · 23/09 20:30194%X2+1.598%GG57%+2.593%
Boston River – Fenix 3–2Copa Uruguay · Uruguay · 23/09 20:301✓ 46%X2+1.5✓ 95%GG✓ 81%+2.5✓ 84%
Liverpool Montevideo – Colón 3–0Copa Uruguay · Uruguay · 23/09 20:301✓ 41%X2+1.5✓ 76%GG✗ 55%+2.5✓ 52%
Cumnock Juniors – Troon FCFootball League – Lowland League · Scotland · 23/09 20:45157%X2+1.583%GG60%+2.562%
Renfrew – BeithFootball League – Lowland League · Scotland · 23/09 20:451X245%+1.596%GG83%+2.587%
Hamilton Academical – Cowdenbeath 1–0Challenge Cup · Scotland · 23/09 20:451✓ 42%X2+1.5✗ 84%GG✗ 64%+2.5✗ 63%
Sant Andreu – Real Madrid IIPrimera División RFEF – Group 2 · Spain · 23/09 21:00 · ☀ 22°144%X2+1.562%GG+2.5
Chelsea W – Austria Wien WUEFA Champions League Women · World · 23/09 21:00 · ☀ 15°174%X2+1.596%GG75%+2.588%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo – 4 de MayoCopa Paraguay · Paraguay · 23/09 21:00139%X2+1.591%GG75%+2.576%
Alianza Atletico – Sport BoysCopa De La Liga · Peru · 23/09 22:00146%X2+1.590%GG73%+2.575%
Sporting Cristal – ADTCopa De La Liga · Peru · 23/09 22:00160%X2+1.575%GG+2.551%
Curico Unido – ConcepciónCopa Chile · Chile · 23/09 23:00137%X2+1.563%GG+2.5
Fernando De La Mora – Libertad AsuncionCopa Paraguay · Paraguay · 23/09 23:30161%X2+1.585%GG61%+2.566%
Barra – NaçãoCopa Santa Catarina · Brazil · 24/09 00:00139%X2+1.578%GG58%+2.554%
Grêmio Anápolis – Bom Jesus ECGoiano – 2 · Brazil · 24/09 00:001X235%+1.559%GG+2.5
Belgrano Córdoba Res. – Talleres Córdoba Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 24/09 00:00137%X2+1.569%GG+2.5
Moca – Delfines Del EsteLiga Mayor · Dominican-Republic · 24/09 00:001X53%2+1.5GG+2.5
Vega Real – JarabacoaLiga Mayor · Dominican-Republic · 24/09 00:00 · 🌦 24°188%X2+1.585%GG+2.566%
Goiânia – MorrinhosGoiano – 2 · Brazil · 24/09 00:30136%X2+1.575%GG55%+2.551%
Mineiros – Tupy FCGoiano – 2 · Brazil · 24/09 00:30138%X2+1.557%GG+2.5
Auto Esporte – Cruzeiro PBParaibano 2 · Brazil · 24/09 00:30147%X2+1.571%GG+2.5
Sport PB – FemarParaibano 2 · Brazil · 24/09 00:30175%X2+1.586%GG53%+2.568%
Cerro – Deportivo MaldonadoCopa Uruguay · Uruguay · 24/09 01:001X272%+1.571%GG+2.5
Wanderers – CerritoCopa Uruguay · Uruguay · 24/09 01:001X247%+1.571%GG+2.5
Deportes Iquique – AntofagastaCopa Chile · Chile · 24/09 01:30148%X2+1.579%GG57%+2.555%
Union La Calera – U. CatolicaCopa Chile · Chile · 24/09 01:30 · ☁ 16°141%X2+1.590%GG73%+2.574%
Goianésia – Rio VerdeGoiano – 2 · Brazil · 24/09 02:001X236%+1.562%GG+2.5
Santa Fe W – Deportivo Cali WLiga Femenina · Colombia · 24/09 02:001X243%+1.575%GG54%+2.551%
America de Cali – Águilas DoradasPrimera A · Colombia · 24/09 02:30159%X2+1.570%GG+2.5
Seattle Sounders – Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · USA · 24/09 03:30 · ☁ 12°143%X2+1.580%GG60%+2.558%
Vancouver FC – York UnitedCanadian Premier League · Canada · 24/09 04:00157%X2+1.575%GG+2.551%
Xelajú – Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · Guatemala · 24/09 04:00144%X2+1.584%GG65%+2.564%
Solomon Islands – VanuatuFriendlies · World · 24/09 06:00144%X2+1.574%GG53%+2.5
Papua New Guinea – New CaledoniaFriendlies · World · 24/09 09:00148%X2+1.579%GG57%+2.555%
Ugyen Academy – DrukpaPremier League · Bhutan · 24/09 11:001X270%+1.592%GG67%+2.578%
Palestine – New ZealandFriendlies · World · 24/09 11:30154%X2+1.582%GG60%+2.561%
Japan – UruguayFriendlies · World · 24/09 12:05 · ⛅ 20°1X38%2+1.5GG+2.5
South Korea – EcuadorFriendlies · World · 24/09 13:00144%X2+1.574%GG53%+2.5
China – MaldivesFriendlies · World · 24/09 13:35156%X2+1.563%GG+2.5
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik – Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattLiga Alef · Israel · 24/09 13:45162%X2+1.585%GG60%+2.565%
Podkonice – Ružomberok II3. liga – Center · Slovakia · 24/09 15:30144%X2+1.593%GG78%+2.581%
AL Nasr SC – El Seka El HadidSecond League · Egypt · 24/09 15:30146%X2+1.572%GG51%+2.5
Kahraba Ismailia – PharcoSecond League · Egypt · 24/09 15:30164%X2+1.566%GG+2.5
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat – El MansuraSecond League · Egypt · 24/09 15:30154%X2+1.552%GG+2.5
Masar – ProxySecond League · Egypt · 24/09 15:30184%X2+1.583%GG+2.562%
Team – El DakhleyaSecond League · Egypt · 24/09 15:30151%X2+1.555%GG+2.5
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed – Hapoel Ironi ArrabaLiga Alef · Israel · 24/09 15:30153%X2+1.593%GG77%+2.580%
Uzbekistan – IranFriendlies · World · 24/09 16:001X268%+1.597%GG82%+2.591%
Oman Club – SurFA Cup · Oman · 24/09 16:30136%X2+1.580%GG60%+2.558%
Sohar – Al SeebFA Cup · Oman · 24/09 16:40154%X2+1.576%GG52%+2.552%
Koprivnica – Uskok KlisSecond NL · Croatia · 24/09 17:001X264%+1.584%GG57%+2.563%
Burundi U20 – Uganda U20CECAFA U20 Championship · World · 24/09 17:00155%X2+1.571%GG+2.5
Tanzania U20 – Sudan U20CECAFA U20 Championship · World · 24/09 17:001X246%+1.590%GG73%+2.575%
Hapoel Acre – Hapoel AfulaLiga Leumit · Israel · 24/09 18:001X250%+1.590%GG73%+2.575%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion – Maccabi Ahi NazarethLiga Leumit · Israel · 24/09 18:00159%X2+1.588%GG67%+2.571%
Ironi Modi'in – AshdodLiga Leumit · Israel · 24/09 18:001X262%+1.582%GG56%+2.561%
Maccabi Herzliya – Kiryat Yam SCLiga Leumit · Israel · 24/09 18:001X249%+1.594%GG79%+2.583%
FC Jerusalem – Maccabi YavneLiga Alef · Israel · 24/09 18:001X34%2+1.559%GG+2.5
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek – Hapoel Nazareth IllitLiga Alef · Israel · 24/09 18:30149%X2+1.594%GG79%+2.583%
Holon Yermiyahu – Kfar Saba 1928Liga Alef · Israel · 24/09 18:301X275%+1.584%GG+2.563%
Neom SC W – Al Ahli SC WPremier League Women · Saudi-Arabia · 24/09 19:151X288%+1.598%GG69%+2.592%
Hapoel Hadera – Maccabi AshdodLiga Alef · Israel · 24/09 19:15136%X2+1.580%GG60%+2.558%
Belgium U21 – Belarus U21UEFA U21 Championship – Qualification · World · 24/09 20:00 · ☁ 14°168%X2+1.565%GG+2.5
Argentinos Juniors Res. – Platense Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 24/09 20:00151%X2+1.555%GG+2.5
Deportivo Riestra Res. – Barracas Central Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 24/09 20:00163%X2+1.576%GG+2.552%
Instituto Res. – Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2Reserve League · Argentina · 24/09 20:00152%X2+1.567%GG+2.5
Newell's Old Boys Res. – Rosario Central Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 24/09 20:00140%X2+1.573%GG53%+2.5
Portuguesa U20 – Ponte Preta U20Paulista – U20 · Brazil · 24/09 20:00159%X2+1.582%GG57%+2.560%
Kongahälla – LindomeDivision 2 – Västra Götaland · Sweden · 24/09 20:151X246%+1.583%GG63%+2.562%
San Marino U21 – Kosovo U21UEFA U21 Championship – Qualification · World · 24/09 20:30 · ☁ 21°1X278%+1.590%GG58%+2.575%
Danubio – PenarolCopa Uruguay · Uruguay · 24/09 20:30149%X2+1.594%GG79%+2.583%
Atletico Torque – AtenasCopa Uruguay · Uruguay · 24/09 20:30164%X2+1.589%GG65%+2.572%
Caen – RouenLigue 3 · France · 24/09 20:45 · ⛅ 20°1X246%+1.572%GG51%+2.5
Atletico FC – Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsLiga Pro Serie B · Ecuador · 24/09 21:00152%X2+1.559%GG+2.5
Atlético Tembetary – Sportivo ItenoCopa Paraguay · Paraguay · 24/09 21:00139%X2+1.591%GG75%+2.576%
Ind. Juniors – CuniburoLiga Pro Serie B · Ecuador · 24/09 22:30145%X2+1.552%GG+2.5
O'Higgins – Deportes Santa CruzCopa Chile · Chile · 24/09 23:00143%X2+1.580%GG60%+2.558%
LDU Portoviejo – 22 de JulioLiga Pro Serie B · Ecuador · 24/09 23:30167%X2+1.554%GG+2.5
Deportivo Recoleta – Guairena FCCopa Paraguay · Paraguay · 24/09 23:301X242%+1.592%GG76%+2.578%

*Odds correct as of date published, prices subject to change, check 1XBET for actual odds.

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mathematical football prediction

What Mathematical Football Prediction Actually Means

People hear “mathematical model” and picture a black box that spits out winners. The reality is more boring. A decent model takes every match a team has played, weighs the quality of their opponents, adjusts for home advantage, and then estimates a probability for each scoreline. Poisson distributions, Elo-style ratings, and xG (expected goals) are the three building blocks most public models use.

The model doesn’t care about your favourite club. That’s its main advantage. The variables that matter most in my own workflow:

  • Expected goals for and against, ideally over the last 8 to 12 matches
  • Goalkeeper status (a backup keeper can swing the line by 0.3 goals)
  • Travel and rest days, especially in midweek European fixtures
  • Referee tendencies for cards and penalty calls
  • Weather, but only for under/over markets in winter rounds

None of these guarantee a win. They shift probabilities, and probabilities are all you have when you’re betting.

Spotting Must-Win Teams Today

What makes a team a “must-win”?

A must-win isn’t just the favourite. It’s a team where the situation, the form and the opponent line up. Think Bayern at home against a newly promoted side in October. Or Real Madrid hosting a mid-table La Liga club the weekend before a Champions League knockout, where the bookies still price them at short odds and the model agrees.

The four things I check before calling a side a genuine must-win:

  • Form: at least 4 wins in their last 6, ideally with clean sheets
  • Opposition trouble: missing a key defender, on a bad run, or just travelled across Europe
  • Home record: many teams are completely different sides at home, and the gap is bigger than people think
  • Motivation: title race, top-four push, or a derby that the squad won’t take lightly

How to use must-win picks without blowing your bankroll

The mistake I made for years was stacking five “must-wins” into an accumulator. One late equaliser kills the slip every single time. What works better:

Singles on the highest-confidence pick of the day. Boring, but the maths is on your side. Two-fold accas when two picks each clear 70% in the model, which gives roughly 50% combined and decent returns at the typical 1.40-1.60 acca price. Asian handicap -1 if the favourite is too short for a straight win but the model expects a comfortable scoreline. I almost never touch 4+ accumulators on must-wins. The variance eats you alive.

Daily picks, not daily nonsense

Every day at Forwins we publish the matches our model rates highest, with the probability for each market shown next to the tip. If the number is below 70% on a 1X2 pick, we don’t post it. If you only see two or three matches on a quiet Tuesday, that’s the point.

⚠️ Bet responsibly. Stake what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, stop.

Over 2.5 Predictions: What Most People Get Wrong

Over 2.5 means three or more goals in the match. Simple market, simple rule. The bit people miss is that “both teams score a lot” doesn’t automatically mean over 2.5 hits. You need pace and chance creation, not just two leaky defences.

A useful rule of thumb: if the combined xG for the fixture sits above 2.8 and neither side has parked the bus in their last five league games, over 2.5 is usually live. Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart games in 2024-25 are the textbook example. Two attacking sides, both pressing high, with combined goal totals north of 3 in most weeks.

Where it goes wrong:

  • Big derbies. Tactically tight, lots of yellow cards, fewer chances than the season average suggests
  • Wet pitches and December rounds in Northern Europe
  • Sides that have just played a Europa or Champions League midweek game and rotated

The Draw: Underrated and Often Mispriced

Most casual bettors never touch the X. That’s exactly why there’s value in it. Draws are statistically the rarest of the three 1X2 outcomes in most leagues (around 24-28% in the top five European leagues), but when the model and the situation point to one, the typical 3.20-3.60 price is generous.

Where draws cluster:

  • Teams within 2-3 points of each other in the table
  • Matches between defensive sides with low xG totals (think Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad)
  • End-of-season fixtures where both teams are already safe

Serie A produces more draws than any other top league, year after year. Italian football is built around defensive shape, and that shows in the scorelines. If you want to specialise in draws, start there.

Weekend Picks: Where the Real Volume Is

Saturdays and Sundays carry the bulk of the betting calendar. Premier League and La Liga slates on the same day, plus Serie A and Bundesliga, plus the smaller leagues. There’s too much football to bet on every match, and trying is the fastest way to lose a bankroll.

My weekend filter is simple. I rank every match by model confidence, throw out anything below 70%, and look for two or three plays where the bookie line and my model disagree by more than 5 percentage points. Those are the value bets. A “lock” at 1.20 with a true 90% chance is fine, but you make real money when the line is wrong, not when it’s right.

Can You Really Get 90% Accurate Predictions?

The honest version is less exciting: it holds up on safe markets across a short run of bets, and falls apart the moment you want better odds.

Over 1.5 goals in Bundesliga matches hits around 88% historically. Double chance on a heavy home favourite against a bottom-table side hits 90%+. But those are 1.10-1.25 odds. To grow a bankroll meaningfully on those, you’d need huge stakes, and a single 10% loss wipes out many wins.

Anyone selling you “90% accurate predictions” at decent odds is either cherry-picking past results or selling you a dream. The honest target for a profitable bettor is 55-58% on near-evens lines. That’s the level where compounding actually works.

Football Prediction for Tomorrow: Plan, Don’t React

The biggest edge you can get isn’t a better model. It’s earlier lines. Bookmaker odds the day before a match are softer than the same lines an hour before kick-off, because the market hasn’t adjusted to the late money yet. If your model fancies the away team and the price is 2.80 today, it’s likely closer to 2.50 by Saturday morning.

That’s why we publish next-day previews every evening at Forwins. Read them, check the team news the morning of the match, and place early when the value is still there.

BTTS Tips: When Both Teams Actually Score

BTTS is a strange market. It looks like a coin flip, but the long-term hit rate across the top leagues sits around 52-54%. The model edge is small, which means the bookmaker margin matters more here than on most markets. Always shop the line.

BTTS tends to hit in matches where:

  • Both teams have scored in 4+ of their last 6 matches
  • Neither side has a stand-out goalkeeper
  • The favourite likes to attack rather than sit on a 1-0

Bundesliga is the BTTS league. La Liga and Ligue 1 are the worst for it, because the bottom-half teams often struggle to score at all.

Predictions for Nigerian Bettors

Nigeria has one of the most active football betting communities in Africa, and the markets popular with Nigerian bettors aren’t always the ones I’d default to. Multi-bets on weekend EPL games are everywhere. So is interest in the NPFL, where pricing is wider because fewer models cover the league.

If you bet from Nigeria, the same rules apply: stick to leagues you can actually follow, avoid huge accumulators no matter how tempting the payout looks, and shop for the best line. We cover the main European leagues plus selected NPFL fixtures.

The Short Version

A model gives you probabilities. You compare them to the bookie’s price. When your number is meaningfully higher, you bet. When it isn’t, you skip. That’s the entire job.

Everything else, including how many picks we post each day, which leagues we cover, and which markets we trust, follows from that idea. We publish daily previews for the top leagues, plus weekend round-ups every Friday. Take what’s useful, ignore what isn’t.

FAQ: Football Predictions & Betting

What are mathematical football predictions?

Mathematical football predictions are forecasts built from statistical models rather than gut feeling. They combine recent form, expected goals, head-to-head data, lineup news, and home advantage to produce a probability for each outcome. Think of it as a forecast rather than a guarantee. It gives you the likelihood of each result and a sense of how far to trust that number.

How do you predict draws in football?

Look for matches between teams of similar quality (within a few points in the table), low combined xG, and defensive styles. Serie A produces the most draws of any top European league. Atletico-style sides that prioritise structure over attacking risk are also reliable draw candidates, especially when they meet each other.

What does Over 2.5 mean in football betting?

Over 2.5 means betting that the match will end with three or more goals. Final scores of 2-1, 3-0, 3-2, 4-1 all win. A 2-0, 1-1 or 0-0 loses. It’s one of the most popular goal markets because the line cuts cleanly through the most common scorelines.

How do I find value bets?

A value bet is one where your estimated probability is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds imply. If you think a team has a 60% chance to win and the price is 1.90 (implied probability 52.6%), that’s value. Finding these consistently requires a method for estimating probability that isn’t just based on which team you like.

Are weekend predictions different from weekday ones?

The method is the same, but weekends have far more matches, so the filter has to be tighter. With 20+ games across the top leagues on a Saturday, you can afford to skip 90% of them and only bet the ones where the model edge is clear. Weekday matches often have softer lines because the market is thinner.

Can football predictions really be 90% accurate?

Only on safe markets like Over 1.5 in attacking leagues or double chance on heavy favourites, where odds are too short to grow a bankroll meaningfully. On more useful markets like 1X2 picks at 1.80-2.20, a sustainable hit rate sits in the 55-60% range. Anyone claiming 90% accuracy at decent odds is cherry-picking results.

Are your football predictions free?

Yes. All daily picks, weekend previews, and analysis on Forwins.com are free. We publish full reasoning alongside each tip so you can judge whether the logic holds, rather than just copying the bet blindly.

Do you cover Nigerian football?

We cover selected NPFL fixtures and any international matches involving Nigerian teams. The bulk of our daily output is the top European leagues, since that’s where the lines are sharpest and our data is most reliable.

What’s the best market for beginners?

Double chance (1X or X2) is the gentlest starting point. You’re covering two outcomes out of three, so the hit rate is naturally high, and it forces you to think about which outcome you’re ruling out rather than which one you’re picking. Once you’re comfortable, move to 1X2 and over/under markets.